Week 11 Loves & Hates
Loves
QBs
Justin Herbert (Chargers)- The potential Offensive Rookie of the Year gets to continue making his case this week as the Jets come to town. I fully expect Herbert to throw all over this Jets defense as they currently rank 29th against opposing QBs. The Jets have allowed a 72% completion rate this season while allowing a staggering 2584 yards and 16 touchdowns. To be fair these are not the highest numbers in the league, but boy are they close. I could see the Chargers getting up early with the passing game, as the Jets are 24th against WRs and 22nd against TEs. With the help of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry this should be a very productive day for Herbert.
Jamies Winston (Saints)- With Drew Brees out this week, and maybe more, it’s time for Winston to keep serving up some Ws or maybe eating them, I don’t know the jury is still out on that saying. However, Winston could not ask for a better matchup in his first start with the Saints. The Falcons are one of the worst teams against the pass, and with Winston’s tendencies to be aggressive this could pay off. This season the Falcons have allowed the most passing TDs (22) and second most yards (2903). With the Michael Thomas, Jared Cook, Emmanuel Sanders, and of course Alvin Kamara, this could be a vintage Winston game. So get a little wild and have a few crab legs with this one.
RBs
James Connor (Steelers)- I know people have been worried about Connor the last couple weeks, as he has provided single digit performances, but things should change this week. The Steelers should be able to get up early on the Jags and lean on Connor to close the game out. This was the thought I had when they played the Cowboys, and that didn’t go so well, so why not try it again. The Jaguars defense has been susceptible to RBs as they rank 27th and have allowed 851 rushing yards, 8 TDs, along with 431 receiving yards and 2 TDs. With Connor being the lead back and the potential for this game to get one sided, I do like the potential for a good day out of Connor.
Damien Harris (Patriots)- This one will need some monitoring, but at this moment I do like Harris in this matchup. The Texans do not typically allow many receiving yards to RBs, and luckily that isn’t Harris’ game, rather he is their dedicated runner and he has been a surprise since being brought up. However, there is a chance that Sony Michel returns and could completely muddy this whole backfield. With how Harris has been, I think the team is comfortable keeping Michel out for another week and continuing to use Harris. This game should lean more run heavy for the Patriots with the Texans ranking 30th and allowing the most yards to RBs (1389) and second most TDs (11).
Kalen Ballage (Chargers)- I am hoping for another big week from Ballage who has went from bust for the Jets, to surprise starting RB with the Chargers. Another reason I really like this play, it’s a “REVENGE Game!” Plus the Jets have been pretty generous to RBs, as they have allowed 912 rushing yards, 8 TDs, and 382 receiving yards and a TD. The Chargers have used Ballage both as a runner and receiver in the last couple weeks, and he now looks to be the main back until Austin Ekeler returns.
WRs
D.J. Chark (Jaguars)- This love is less based on the Steelers being weak against WRs and more because I think the Jaguars will be playing from behind. With that said, Chark does have a good matchup this week with the Steelers who rank 21st against WRs and have allowed 1624 yards and 13 TDs. Chark is the better option in this Jaguars offense and is their big play receiver. Hopefully Jake Luton can keep looking to Chark and provide some nice points.
Christian Kirk (Cardinals)- Kirk has been a very touchdown dependent player this year, as those have been his big production weeks, and this week he gets the 32nd ranked Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed the most passing yards to WRs (2428) and the third most TDs (13). Last time these two teams squared off it was a high scoring affair with Kirk catching 2 TDs. Will he catch two again this game, probably not, but his yardages should definitely be higher this time around.
Curtis Samuel (Panthers)- For this matchup I didn’t think of Samuel strictly as a WR but also as a RB. The Panthers have used him in multiple ways this season, lining him up out wide, in the slot, and in the backfield. The versatility that Samuel brings is a big reason why I like him. Although the Lions have been a fairly good team at defending WRs they have been the worst team at stopping RBs, which might make this more of a Mike Davis game, but either way Samuel can be used on designed runs or even as a change of pace back.
TEs
Hayden Hurst (Falcons)- The change of scenery has provided a spark to the former first rounder and has shown the talent that we all knew he had when he was taken by the Ravens. The Saints this season have allowed 48 catches for 479 yards and 6 TDs to TEs, and with Hurst’s ability after the catch its hard not to get excited for this one. Not only is Hurst not a touchdown dependent player, he is also one of the main targets in this Falcons offense as he saw a team high 8 targets in their Week 9 game versus the Broncos. With Calvin Ridley still a little banged up the team could focus more towards Julio Jones and Hurst.
Logan Thomas (Washington Football Team)- With how much Alex Smith threw last game I nearly bought into their entire offense. However, that wouldn’t be the smartest move so instead I opted for key pieces. Last week against a tough matchup Thomas was able to catch 4 of 6 targets for a season high 66 yards. This week he gets an easier matchup with the Bengals who are 31st against TEs and have allowed a 63% completion percentage, which fits into Smith’s style, and 583 yards.
D/ST
Dolphins- When I look for a defense I try to find opponents that are prone to turning the ball over, and what better place to go than the Broncos and Drew Lock. If there is one thing we know about Lock it is his arm talent and willingness to force the issue. With how the Dolphins have played this season I like them here. The secondary for the Dolphins has some big name corner and linebackers that can cover, chase, and get to the QB. The defense has provided pressure with Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, and Kyle Van Noy. This has the makings to be a rough day for Lock and the Broncos.
Hates
QB
Tom Brady (Buccaneers)- Last week the Rams faced off against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks and gave that offense fits. Wilson didn’t look like his MVP self and stud DK Metcalf was held in check. With Brady being very statue like, the Rams defense should be able to get to him and disrupt his timing. Plus the Rams are the 2nd ranked defense against QBs allowing only 1990 yards and 9 TDs, with 8 INTs. With Jalen Ramsey most likely covering Mike Evans and Marcus Peters getting Antonio Brown I don’t see many opportunities for big plays.
RB
James Robinson (Jaguars)- This looks to be a tough week for the Jaguars, and particularly Robinson. The Steelers have been a stingy defense against RBs with allowing only 759 rushing yards, 5 TDs and 27 receptions for 201 yards and 1 TD. With the Steelers looking to be up early, the Jaguars will most likely have to abandon the run and become pass heavy. This potential outcome does not make for a strong Robinson showing.
WR
Adam Thielen (Vikings)- This one isn’t because it’s a bad matchup or my hatred for the Vikings, but because this feels like a run heavy Dalvin Cook game. The Cowboys have allowed the second most rushing yards this season, and if that’s the case Kirk Cousins is more than willing to turn and hand the ball off. He did this in the Packers and Lions game where he threw a combine 34 passes. In those games Thielen took a huge hit to his stats and was a blemish on most rosters.
TE
Darren Waller (Raiders)- So the last time these two teams faced off I think Waller was one of my hates. Well he ended up getting a touchdown and it made his stat line look way better than it was. So I am doubling down on this one again. The Chiefs are 6th this season against TEs and have allowed 36 receptions for 363 yards and 3 TDs. One of these TDs was Waller back in Week 5. I think the Chiefs try and take away both Waller and Josh Jacobs.
Comments
Post a Comment