Week 12 Loves & Hates
Loves
QBs
Justin Herbert (Chargers)- Herbert has looked like a steal for the Chargers this year and for fantasy teams, he has not disappointed. Believe it or not Herbert is ranked as the 7th best QB this season, and this week he gets a Bills team that has become vulnerable. Over the span of the season the Bills rank as the 28th team against QBs, and are one of the worst against mobile QBs. Although Herbert does not run often the ability is there and he has shown he will when needed. Even though the Bills have been good against opposing WRs (11th), they have been pretty bad against TEs (30th) although over the last four weeks they have improved (14th).
Jared Goff (Rams)- The 49ers came into this year as one of the most feared defenses in the league and for the most part they have been as their season rankings against QBs (16th), WRs (10), and TEs (2nd) clearly display. However, there has been a collapse of this defense as of late and what seemed to be a strength might actually be their weakness. As of the last four weeks the 49ers are 30th against QBs and have allowed 705 passing yards and 9 TDs without forcing an interception. The bulk of these passing yards have gone to WRs, as expected, and currently they rank 24th against WRs. This has the makings for a great game for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, as these two receivers just dismantled a stronger Buccaneers defense. This current 49ers pass defense should be picked apart.
RBs
Darrell Henderson (Rams)- This may seem like an odd choice for a Love, but as I alluded to above the 49ers defense has been trending down. This 49ers defense was always strong against RBs, but injuries have ruined this defense as they have gone from 10th all the way down to 30th as of the last four weeks. In these last four weeks the 49ers have allowed 218 rushing yards and 3 TDs, along with 22 receptions for 178 yards and 2 TDs. The backfield for the Rams is kind of a cluster (you know what), but from watching this team Henderson looks to be the main back with Cam Akers returning to the number 2 spot, and Malcom Brown being the third back. This 49ers defense should not put up as much of a fight as the Buccaneers did last week and Henderson should find some opportunities shine.
Zack Moss (Bills)- Although the Chargers defense has been bad this season they have gotten better in some areas, and worse in others. RBs are where they have gotten worse. Over the course of this season the Chargers have been the 22nd ranked team when facing opposing QBs and they have been generous with rushing yards (960), rushing TDs (7), receptions (60), receiving yards (353), and receiving TDs (3). However, most of the rushing stats are from the last four weeks. In this time they have they have allowed 445 rushing yards (this ranks 3rd) and 6 rushing TDs (this ranks 3rd). This trend benefits the likes of Moss more than it does Devin Singletary.
WRs
Darius Slayton (Giants)- If there was a WR choice to roster for the Giants, this season has showed that it has to be Slayton. Although he has been inconsistent this season the Giants have tried to get him involved to help Daniel Jones. This week Slayton and the Giants get a Bengals team that has been quite the rollercoaster. The defense for the Bengals typically is pretty solid against QBs and RBs, but to WRs they are one of the worst. They rank 24th on the season and have allowed the 4th most TDs (14), but over the last four weeks they have gotten worse. They have gone from 24th to 29th over this time and have allowed the most TDs (7). Hopefully Jones can continue to find Slayton.
Davante Parker (Dolphins)- I know I have picked on the Jets quite a bit in my blog, but its hard not to. The Jets have been one of the worst teams in the 2020 season when defending opposing WRs as they rank 28th and have allowed 156 receptions, 2021 yards, and 11 TDs. This could be the get right game that Parker needs, as he has disappointed recently. What’s even better is that the Jets have gotten worse over the last four weeks and their pass defense has been basically non existent. The Jets now are the worst team at defending WRs and have given up 58 receptions, 787 yards, and 6 TDs. If Parker can’t get right after this one, I would be concerned.
TEs
Jonnu Smith (Titans)- Imagine going from one of the best defenses against TEs to the 30th. Well that is what the Colts have done over the past four weeks. Although the Colts haven’t allowed the most TDs or the most yards, they have allowed opposing TEs to average 16.03 fantasy points in this span. With a strong option in Smith the Titans should be able to take advantage of this new weakness of the Colts.
Eric Ebron (Steelers)- As this year has gone on and Ebron has established a connection with Ben Roethlisberger, he has seen at least 3 targets per game. What is also reassuring is the fact that Big Ben will look to Ebron in the redzone. Add on top of that a Ravens team that has allowed 52 reception for 531 yards, and 5 TDs, and it’s hard not to get excited. Another key stat is the the Ravens have allowed 9 touches on 12 targets in the redzone. (If this game is still scheduled).
D/ST
Packers- The reason I am putting this one here is simple, Mitchell Trubisky. Okay, it isn’t just because of him, but he is a major reason. However, there has been a trend this entire season for the Bears offense and that has been their inefficiency. Whether it was with Trubisky under center or Nick Foles, the offense just seemed out of sorts. But, over the last four weeks the Bears have allowed opposing defense to average 10.33 fantasy points by giving up 10 sacks, 2 Ints, 3 fumble recoveries, and 1 defensive touchdown. With the Packers defense getting some turnovers as of late and playing well I feel good about this one.
Steelers- This is my choice because of the bad luck the Ravens have been dealt, just yesterday the team learned that both Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins tested positive for COVID and will not be able to play. With the lack of weapons and the tear the Steelers have been on I think there might be too many obstacles for Lamar Jackson to handle. Furthermore, the Steelers have been one of the best teams when facing QBs (1), RBs (2), and TEs (1). Maybe the one weak point would be how they are against WRs (14). (If this game is still scheduled).
Hates
QB
Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers)- As you can sense a theme in this post I have looked at both season long trends and shorter ones over four weeks. This is one where even I was surprised at the change. The Vikings defense is 21st over the course of the season, but in the last four weeks they have become the 8th. The Vikings have allowed a 64% completion percentage, 923 yards, 8 TDs, and they have intercepted 5 passes. This should be a challenge for Bridgewater, as I am not expecting a good day.
RB
Josh Jacobs (Raiders)- Early this season the Falcons were good against RBs, but now they have become the best team, going from 11th to 1st. The Falcons have only allowed 201 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, and 56 receiving yards. This could be Jacobs toughest challenge this season. With the Falcons being vulnerable to the pass this could be a lower performance than what we have seen.
WRs
Stefon Diggs (Bills)- No matter if this was a season long trend (ranking 6th) or one for the last four weeks (ranking 5th), the Chargers have been one of the teams against WRs. The Chargers have allowed 31 receptions for 525 yards and 5 TDs over these four weeks. Without John Brown the Chargers will be able to key on Diggs and Cole Beasley and make Josh Allen’s day a tough one. Corner Casey Hayward should be able to take on Diggs and frustrate him.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers)- After disappointing last week and hurting himself by stepping on a flag. Yes, he hurt himself by stepping on a referee’s flag, I wished I was kidding. I think the toe injury will limit Smith-Schuster’s effectiveness to run the routes as cleaning as he would normally, and I think this will hinder his involvement in the game. Another reason for this decision is how the Ravens handle opposing WRs. The Ravens have allowed very few TDs (5) and have allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards (1490). (If this game is still scheduled).
TEs
Evan Engram (Giants)- This change from the Bengals has been the most drastic out of any I wrote about today. This season the Bengals defense has been the 29th ranked defense against TEs, but as of recently they have become the 3rd best.These stats that the Bengals have allowed are staggering, over these last four weeks the Bengals have given up 8 receptions for 109 yards. The Bengals have gone from allowing TEs 14.92 fantasy points to 6.37. Engram has been steady this season, but having him projected as the 5th TE for this week is not something I can agree with. Be careful playing him this week.
Mark Andrews (Ravens)- If Andrews is not 100% this week, I really don’t like his chances to be a top performer. The Steelers defense has been one of the best this season, and currently they are the number 1 team against TEs. The Steelers have allowed 8.04 fantasy points to TEs this season by only allowing 36 receptions for 364 yards and 1 TD. Based on these stats I would not be shocked if the Steelers completely erase Andrews from the Ravens’ game script. (If this game is still scheduled).
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